Our we are the verge of another housing bubble? In this man’s opinion, I don’t think so.
There are many different factors we are seeing now, that we didn’t see in the bubble of 2005 – 2007.
Let me backtrack a little bit, as my opinion started changing in the last few months. As a Realtor, I have had many discussions with other Realtors on how many of us thought we were starting to see a change in the market. Discussions on how homes were sitting a bit longer than at the beginning of the year, and that buyers were seeming to expect more in their offers in terms of getting more leverage to tie up an escrow.
Don’t get me wrong, as a buyer’s agent as well, I would do my all to get my buyer what would be best for their needs. However, many agents were saying they thought the market was starting to shift and it wasn’t just a seller’s market anymore. I now believe we are just seeing what we call in the market, our Summer doldrums. People taking vacations, kids starting to go back to school earlier than before, and once again low, low inventory.
I believe we will just be hitting a high-water mark, then pull back a little, then go on the upswing again to more higher prices.
For those of you, still sitting on the sidelines and saying, well the market will crash soon, and I will wait, that is your prerogative, but time is working against you.
Remember, we are living in a micro-climate in the real estate industry in California, compared to other states. As other factors may affect lowering prices in other states, we are living in a different world here.
So, any factors that affect the rest of the country may affect us for a little while, but we then rebound at a much quicker pace, based on our what? yes “LOCATION”.
Here is what is happening on the ground, at least here in the Conejo Valley, and Oak Park, CA.
We have legitimate buyers, that can qualify for the loans they are taking out for their home purchases. Meaning they are coming in with 20% down, and are getting low 30-year fixed rates. Also, many of these buyers are feeling more secure with their other assets if they have been in the stock market and are pulling some of their profits and going into the real estate market for more diversification, as well as to live in their home.
So those of you that are still contemplating to buy, if interest rates start to tick up, you might not qualify for that home you want even if the interest rate goes up another half of a percent.
The reason for the bubble in 2007, were the banks were giving loans to everyone and their dog, with all kinds of exotic types of loans that were interest only, sub-prime etc. Also, back in those days, the standard 30 years fixed were at around 7%. And their monthly payments were much higher.
So, if the market now has a more solid type of buyer with low, low inventory, what do you think will happen with prices? Of course, you know, the prices will remain strong, and slowly continue to climb.
We still have pent up demand for housing, and Millennials are now entering the market with higher incomes. Also, many homeowners took advantage of the lowest interest rates we had in our lifetime, and locked in so they don’t want to move. Again, as mentioned no supply and heavy demand.
As we all continue to talk amongst ourselves and say that the prices can’t keep going up, and this is crazy, you might miss the opportunity to put your money into a good investment and live in a nice home.
Rents will continue to skyrocket, so it is now less expensive to own if you can qualify then to rent. If you want to see some hard data numbers look at this video “Renting VS Buying” on what it costs to rent, and where your money is going.
Again, as mentioned “This is just one man’s opinion”
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